Sunday, 25 May 2014

HS2 "Will Suck the Lifeblood Out of the Railway System"

The High Speed Two rail investigation was commissioned by Labour Transport Secretary Andrew Adonis in 2009, reporting just as the election was called in March 2010. Adonis proved to be an aggressive supporter of the project. He claimed that it would be an “act of national self mutilation” to reject the scheme after former Labour Chancellor Alastair Darling called for it to be scrapped in August 2013, and Ed Balls warned there would be, “no blank cheques” for HS2 if Labour won power in 2015.

The cost of the scheme just kept on growing and by the summer of 2013 the figure for updating the London/ Birmingham section stood at £50 billion. All well and good as we are all in favour of big Government investment in infrastructure projects. But they have to past three tests. Firstly do they create well paid and sustainable jobs? Secondly do they contribute to long term GDP growth and thirdly do they increase or decrease regional inequalities?
In the midst of economic stagnation which faces the UK mid decade, the GDP issue is the one that really matters. The Tories used this argument, thus tacitly endorsing the belief of us in the left that big government projects are the way forward to stimulate the economy. The truth is hard to find as economists disagree. During 2013 Government ministers were quoting an annual dividend of some £15 billion from HS2. This prompted Henry Overman, Professor of economic geography at the London School of Economics to resign from the Whitehall rail advisory panel claiming that the calculations of benefit were, “essentially made up”. He told a Parliamentary committee, “I don’t understand why the £15 billion number was allowed to go out there.” Even Whitehall bean counters KMPG accountants, who had produced the £15 billion figure were forced to tell Committee Chair MP Andrew Tyrie that their findings, “ had no firm statistical foundation.”
On the jobs front even the official HS2 website is sketchy. “40,000 jobs will be supported” is a far from grandiose claim and the most it can say for permanent jobs is 1,500. Indeed an investigation by Andrew Gilligan for the Sunday Telegraph suggested that, “HS2 will destroy more jobs than it creates” due the scrapping of regeneration projects to fund the rail upgrade “costing 20,000 jobs”
Peter Mandleson weighed on our third question regarding the regional inequalities being exacerbated test. The former First Minister and Business Secretary (de facto Deputy Prime Minister) under Gordon Brown told the House of Lords in October 2013 that he was initially supportive of his fellow unelected Cabinet Minister colleague Andrew Adonis regarding the HS2 project. But he was now claiming that it was becoming, “a political trophy issue”. He continued by claiming, “I think the sheer cost of it will suck the very life blood out of the rest of the country’s rail system.” At a time when we need to be looking at investment in the areas still suffering decline it seems to us illogical to continue to centre investment in the south and its hinterland. For example Hull, a major port still lacks a link to the electrified rail network which was rolled up the east coast in 1970 and made famous in the title sequence to the seminal 1971 Michael Caine film “Get Carter”. And in Northern Ireland the need for the mainline to Derry to be upgraded is urgent. In addition the south west of Ulster is not linked by rail to the rest of the island and as a result has some of the poorest wards in the UK. Mandleson concluded, “If this goes ahead we will see a shrinking of the rail network in this country and that should be the very last thing pro-rail supporters would want to see”.
We contend that the HS2 project sees a hi tech solution to a low tech problem. The issue is journey time, and the new high speed rail link will only cut 20 minutes off the time spent on the train between London and Birmingham. So it it really beggars belief that the Tories and Adonis are committed to such a massive spend.
The Channel Tunnel provides an example from recent history and should set alarm bells clanging. Wilson reversed Heath’s commitment when Labour regained office in 1974 but Thatcher, ironically the arch anti European, went forward with the project in alliance with the French President Mitterrand, a socialist. Completed in 1994 the tunnel was a year late and £2 billion over budget.
David Freund was head of of Warburg, the investment house which sold tunnel shares to the public. Speaking in 2005 he said, “We were predicting that on Eurostar there would be 21 million passengers (annually) The actual figure was less than a third of that. So the traffic forecasts were not just out by a little bit. They were completely potty; they were nowhere.”

We would contend that, like HS2 the tunnel itself was not a bad idea, But unless these projects are part of an overarching vision for the future they simply become what Mandleson labeled “trophy projects” which sit in isolation. Looking out of our office window, we can see the example of another such vanity construction, the Humber Bridge. As part of an east coast motorway linking London to Newcastle it would have been an excellent addition to the system. Instead it sits in splendid isolation, a multi million pound road to nowhere.

Wednesday, 21 May 2014

Drugs: Time for a Mature Debate

Part two of our book tackles the issues that Labour need to be talking about, but are frightened to.

Drugs, the mere mention of the word is guaranteed to produce the following responses; from the press, “(insert random celebrity)in Drugs Hell!!!”, from parents, “It's our NUMBER ONE FEAR!!!”, from the Daily Mail, “Drugs are everywhere!!!”.



But from politicians? One hundred per cent deafening silence. When was the last time you heard a politician make a statement on drugs which doesn't involve headline chasing, catch all condemnation? Us neither.

There has rarely been a grown up and rational debate around the use of illegal drugs in Society. New Labour, somewhat surprisingly given their obsession with not upsetting so called Middle England and the Daily Mail demographic, took the bold step in 2001 of announcing that cannabis would be downgraded to a Class C illegal drug. David Blunkett's announcement when he was Home Secretary was an important one. Class C status basically meant de criminalisation for personal possession, and was based on advice dating from as early as 1979 from the Misuse of Drugs Advisory Panel. They felt that the potential “harm” resulting from it's use was disproportionate to it's status, and would free up the police to crack down on harder drugs, and whole sale cannabis suppliers.

The Daily Mail responded with the headline; “Cannabis Kills 30,000 a Year” . Further reading of the article however, provided evidence of the Mail's hysterical angle. The 30,000 figure had in fact been plucked out of the ether. Prof. John Henry, an eminent toxicologist actually put the issue into proportion; “Even if the number of deaths turned out to be only a fraction of the 30,000 we believe possible, cannabis smoking would still be described as a major health hazard.” Hardly the UK going to hell in a drug fuelled handcart.

But New Labour finally bowed to tabloid hectoring as Gordon Brown outrider Ed Balls admitted in 2005 that along with Iraq, the cannabis issue was, “something we could learn from”. We find it fascinating that Balls placed the drug reclassification in the same league as a criminally botched and illegal war, but such was the obsession with the Daily Mail agenda that proportionality went out of the window. However to his credit Blair's home secretary Charles Clarke resisted the media clamour and maintained the classification in a 2006 statement to Parliament.

But in 2007 newly crowned prime minister Gordon Brown ordered his home secretary Jacqui Smith to ensure cannabis was placed back in the harder category B. Despite contrary advice from the Drugs Misuse experts Smith announced the move in January 2008, and Labour's last home secretary Alan Johnson confirmed matters in 2009.

The point of this rather pointless series of events is that politicians cannot be trusted to look at the evidence, weigh it up and make an informed decision when it comes to drugs. As if to prove the point Johnson decided to sack his drugs advisor David Nutt in October 2009 because the medical expert who has a vast well of properly researched knowledge on drugs as whole, had dared to question government policy. Nutt said in a lecture that month, “hunting down low-level cannabis users to protect them is beyond absurd", as chances of psychosis induced episodes presented a “small risk”. He described the cannabis policy as “politically motivated”.  

Johnson is an astute politician and must have been influenced by the experiences of his constituency in Hull, a largely working class area where this is little doubt that drugs play a very harmful role in people's lives. Nevertheless he deliberately chose to ignore the experts and made policy based on gut reaction.

Cameron has almost gone out of his way to avoid the drugs issue. It is on the record and in the public domain that the prime minister has brushed with illegal substances. As a 15 year old student a top public school, Eton College, David Cameron was punished for admitting to the school authorities that he had bought drugs in the nearby town. Then in 2005 Cameron was put on the spot during the Tory leadership race over possible use of cocaine. On the record and in front of the media he stated that he had not snorted coke since becoming an MP. This led the Daily Mail to conclude, “But since he did not become an MP until June 2001, this could revive speculation that he experimented with drugs as a younger man.” Daily Mirror associate editor Kevin McGuire routinely refers to Cameron as, “Druggie Dave” in his New Statesman column and George Osborne has endured his own problems related to Class A's.

Call girl Natalie Rowe told the media in 2005 that a youthful Osborne had taken cocaine with her. In September 2011 the Daily Mail revived the issue accusing former News of the World editor and Tory spin doctor Andy Coulson of killing the story as a favour to the then shadow chancellor. Ms. Rowe challenged Osborne to sue if the story was untrue.

This proves that drugs are not confined to dodgy deals with young hoodied men on bikes. Drug abuse is not the sole prerogative of the indolent, sponging off benefits working classes.

But before we let facts get in the way of making policy, let's actually look at some so we can get the issue in proportion.

In July 2013 the British Crime Survey which reports to the Government came up with following; “8.2% of the population had taken an illicit drug in the last year”. Of those incidents, “2.6% of the population had taken Class A drugs”. When the usage was broken down, “Cannabis was the most commonly used drug, with 6.4% of adults aged 16 to 59 using it in the last year. The next most commonly used drugs in the last year were powder cocaine (1.9%) and ecstasy (1.3%).Crucially the survey reported that theproportion of adults aged 16 to 24 taking any drug in the last year was 16.3%, down from 19.3% in 2011/12.”

These figures are classic example of us as a UK public having no idea about real statistics. Everyone we asked over egged the numbers by at least a quarter. And young people were expected to routinely use drugs, abstention being the exception rather than the rule according to our admittedly completely random and unscientific methods.

What are the problems with drugs? Obviously there is the health angle. However  when heroin addiction was the preserve of the professional classes pre it's banning in 1955, poor health was not even considered. Because it could be prescribed in it's pure form by GP's there were no of the side effects we see today. Extraordinarily the Times newspaper, a bastion of the British establishment ran a 1955 leader entitled, “The Case For Heroin”. Prescribed regularly for a variety of ailments including colds and diarrhoea the drug developed in 1874 had a grand total of 47 UK addicts in 1955. In the US where it had been banned in 1925, the Times reported that it had become, “a major social problem”. As with alcohol, as soon as the authorities moved to prohibition organised criminal gangs got involved. When this happens the product is dressed up as aspirational, hedonistic and appeals to risk taking behaviour. So instead of mild pain relief, the mind bending properties of the drug are emphasised. Nowadays street heroin is cut with everything from sugar to bicarbonates and can induce heavy duty addiction. The impurities cause horrific side effects such as liver failure, limbs becoming rotten and the use of dirty needles helped fuel the rise of HIV and AIDS in the UK. But in 2011 the charity DrugScope appeared to back calls for GP's to go back to prescribing pure heroin, “It can stabilise someone's drug use, achieve positive health outcomes and reduce crime.”
In July 2011 the debate was reignited when it was revealed that some London doctors were prescribing pure heroin as a remedy for addicts. The BBC quoted, “It costs the NHS about £14,000 to maintain an addict on heroin for a year. This is dwarfed by the cost of crime users might otherwise commit. Experts have estimated an addict spends £45,000-a-year on average on street heroin.”

Which brings us neatly on to the next issue surrounding drugs, that of crime.

The Drug's Policy Foundation (DPF) estimates that in 1971 there were around 5,000 problematic drug users in the UK. The Misuse of Drugs Act that was passed by the Heath Government that year saw the biggest move to prohibition yet. Collating accurate figures for today is a challenge for obvious reasons but in 2012 there were 197,110 people in contact with the NHS or other organisations regarding drug addiction. We can never be sure how many addicts are outside the system but a rule of thumb used by DrugScope suggests a doubling meaning nearly 400,000 have drug problems.  The Drugs Policy Foundation concludes, “With no legal supply to meet this ballooning demand organised criminals and unregulated dealers have moved to exploit this profit opportunity with devastating effect.”

As with Prohibition era America the professional, organised criminals have moved in to milk a massive cash cow. The DPF estimates that the drug trade in the UK is worth a monumental £9 billion. Because of these vast rewards criminals are prepared to take risks and the police onslaught has little effect. Comparisons with the US are instructive. The Office of National Drug Control in the US published figures in 2010 that showed an annual spend of $28.3 billion by the authorities on suppressing drug abuse. America has 45 million addicts. The US has roughly a population four times that of the UK but has a a hundred fold more addicts per capita than the UK despite a far more aggressive prohibition policy.

Common sense dictates that prohibition, as with alcohol in the 1930's US simply isn't working. Our prisons prove this.

In December 2012 the Commons Home Affairs Select Committee reported that 70% of UK prisoners had taken drugs prior to being banged up. 51% percent reported drug dependency and 35% admitted injecting behaviour. This compared to 16% being alcohol dependent.

Because of the cost of maintaining a habit (£16,800 per annum according to figures from the NHS) is so crippling, and many addicts are on low incomes, they inevitably turn to crime. The main crimes committed are burglary and interestingly low level drug dealing. This benefits the main suppliers as it insulates them from the risks and the addicts/dealers are malleable due to their habit.

The New Labour Government produced a drug strategy in 1998 which looked a methods to crack the problem. Ten years on the charity Addaction reported that the annual cost to the economy from drug abuse via crime, NHS bills and the such like was £16 billion, or nearly double the cost of staging the 2012 London Olympic Games.

Drugs are a tough nut to crack. As we have seen prohibition simply isn't working. Period. Crime overall is falling, but drug related crime remains stubbornly high.  Drugs blight working class communities up and down the UK and and allows criminals to exploit the most vulnerable members of society. Working girls don't go into the sex industry as a well thought out career move. Many, if not most are carrying a serious drug problem and may have been forced to work by their dealers as the only way to maintain their habit. In July 2013 DrugScope complained that there was poor Government research into the sex trade and drugs but concluded, “It can be difficult to access services that provide specialist support that addresses substance misuse in the context of ‘sex work’. We need more and better support from policy makers, planners and commissioners, and from services on the ground to help these women, many of whom have multiple and complex needs.”

One of Bill Clinton's great mantras about politics goes something like this. You can have bad policy (lock up anyone caught with drugs and throw away the key) but it makes for great politics and garners votes. But in the long run it will come back to bite you. This appears to have been the approach both here and in the US where the phrase, “War on Drugs” is often bandied about.

So what actually happens when prohibition is lifted? Portugal attempted this bold strategy in 2001. All drug use, including crack and heroin was decriminalised in one fell swoop. This dramatic move was the result of years of trying, and failing with the same methods of prohibition, punishment and marginalisation of addicts that has formed drugs policy worldwide. Opponents argued that Portugal would become a druggy tourist destination conveniently forgetting that the wine industry was a major draw for visitors.
Anyone for Port?

Secondly, and this is important, decriminalisation is not, and never will be legalisation. Instead it becomes a civil matter, rather than a criminal issue. The person caught using or possessing drugs is given 72 hours to make an appointment to see something known as The Commission for the Dissuasion of Drug Addiction (CDT). This body is made up of drug support workers and includes access to psychologists and other remedial health professionals. It is all conducted in an atmosphere of non judgement. Pragmatism trumps all other considerations. The law is framed thus; “Recognition of the human dignity of the people involved in the drug phenomenon and consequently an understanding of the complexity and the relevance of the individual, his/her family and background, as well as drug addiction as an illness and the consequent assumption of responsibility by the State in upholding drug addicts constitutional right to health and the avoidance of social exclusion.”

This is total departure and the ethos behind it was summed up by Dr. João Goulão, head of the radical CDT, “I really don’t care if people use drugs. I don’t want them to suffer from it.” As socialists and democrats this is a brilliant way to approach problems in society and what the Labour Party is “for”. To protect the vulnerable and improve the lot of people on life without fear, favour or a rush to judgement.

The prohibitionists argue that decriminalisation will lead straight to hard drugs and all the associated problems. Portugal's experiences negate that view. In 2012  the figures for those interacting with the CDT were thus. 76% resulted from cannabis use, heroin came in at 11% and cocaine users accounted for 6% of the figures. Hardly the dash for the hard stuff that was predicted. 

A related study for the CDT showed a decrease in drug use amongst teenagers and concluded, “Young people often consume drugs as a way to rebel against authority and to declare independence. With decriminalization, these reasons to use drugs make little sense.”

In 2011 the worldwide respected Global Commission on Drugs (endorsed by luminaries such as Jimmy Carter) a 22 member body from across the world reached the following damning conclusion and vindicated Portugal's decriminalisation policy, “The global war on drugs has failed, with devastating consequences for individuals and societies around the world." The report could not have been clearer citing, “Over four decades has not accomplished its goal of banishing drugs and has in fact spawned wide, dramatic eruptions of violence”

Labour must have the courage and self confidence of its values and convictions to grasp the nettle and propose good policy. In this case decriminalisation of drugs. It only become bad politics if you fail to master the argument. Radical and optimistic moves are called for on this issue, the question is, as with a lot of stuff surrounding the Labour Party, does Ed Miliband have the stomach to fight for what he believes in and tackle head on a difficult, yet key issue facing the UK today? What sets the agenda? Properly well thought out policy, or the Daily Mail

Monday, 19 May 2014

Why We Need This Book

Our book is ready for publication and a major publishing house love what we've done and think it will make an important contribution to the debate. One problem. They don't think we can sell enough. We want to show that we can. We ask you to consider what we say below and then give feed back here, and on Facebook. We will publish some extracts in due course. 

We are just one year out from the most important and seismic UK General Election since 1945.

Why?

Because the outcome will determine whether the Labour Party in it's current form will survive. If Labour fails to win an outright majority in 2015, and provide policies to move the UK forward it will die.

Our book identifies what problems the UK faces, and offers genuine left of centre policy ideas as solutions.

But you cannot analyse the here and now without the historical context.

Our work is a narrative of the Labour Party since its evolution from the Labour Representation Committee, Kier Hardie, the first Labour Governments in the mid 20th Century right up to the 2010 General Election defeat.

There is a vacuum of up to date books on the Labour Party which needs to be urgently  filled for the good of our democracy.

This book will appeal right across the range; from those seeking to find out more about the Labour Party and left wing politics, to those who devour every  Guardian political article over their breakfast table. The history of the Party is a roller coaster ride and the potential for it to continue is high, if Ed Miliband acts on the issues he has identified such as disgust with the energy companies, and the cost of living crisis. But the spectre of the Party being smashed apart is similarly high and we want to engage our readers and ask them to consider which way will it go in 2015?

The timing of this book is perfect. A summer publication will hit the political conference season as the Parties gear up for May 2015, and the run up to the election itself will guarantee strong interest. The Labour leadership will find the questions raised challenging, and readers will want to hold the political class to account as polling day approaches.

Danny and Dermot are both political activists with many and varied experiences but the fact they are first time writers is our key selling point. We are not "of" the political class but have vast insight into its current state. This is fresh and from the front line and not the same old commentary from the Westminster bubble which is frankly stale and out of touch.

Please tell your friends about what we are doing and ask them to "like" the product on Facebook

https://www.facebook.com/labourpartybiography?notif_t=page_new_likes